Market Report Source

Overview

Introduction

Datamonitor expects the antidiabetics market to reach $29 billion, across the seven major markets, by 2017. The growth will be driven by the launch of new drug classes, notably the DPP-IV inhibitors and GLP-1 agonists, and large growth in patient numbers. However, patent expiries of the glitazone (TZDs) class will restrain market growth.

Scope of this report

• Description of the competitive landscape in antidiabetics across seven major markets with market definition and overview
• Event-driven updated sales forecasts for 2008-17 across the seven major markets: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan
• Analysis of major events and brand dynamics affecting the diabetes market

Research and analysis highlights

The antidiabetics market in the seven major markets is expected to grow from $18 billion in 2007 to $29 billion in 2017 at a rate of 5% CAGR. Significant unmet needs remain in diabetes fueling a large pipeline. The epidemiological growth of the market, driven by the obesity epidemic and improved diagnosis rates, is further driving the market.

The glitazone class was the major non-insulin antidiabetic therapy in 2007 driven by the Actos and Avandia franchises. Both of these drugs will lose their marketing leading positions following patent expiry in 2011 and 2013. Safety concerns over Avandia remain unresolved and the drug will continue to continue to lose market share.

The incretin mimetics are likely to be the beneficiaries of Avandia’s problems and the DPP-IV inhibitors are expected to become the leading non-insulin antidiabetics. GLP-1 agonists are also expected to record significant sales. The two classes will provide over 75% of the sales from newly launched antidiabetics.

Key reasons to read this report

• Quantify the future size of the antidiabetics market and identify opportunities for new products
• Learn how product expiries will shape the antidiabetics market
• Understand the barriers to uptake for novel antidiabetic agents, and the implications of recent regulatory reviews

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor insight into the disease market
Related reports

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
Definition of drug classes
Current seven major market assessment
The antidiabetics market segmented by class
Total antidiabetic market
Insulin therapies
Non-insulin therapies
The US dominates diabetes market
Historical events
Rest of World snapshot
Current market assessment
Future seven major market assessment

CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS
Overview of competitive landscape
Actos franchise (pioglitazone; Takeda)
Franchise overview
Sales forecasts
Avandia franchise (rosiglitazone; GlaxoSmithKline)
Franchise overview
Sales forecasts
Byetta (exenatide; Amylin/Eli Lilly)
Overview
Sales forecast
Humalog (insulin lispro; Eli Lilly)
Overview
Sales forecast
Humalog Mix (insulin lispro + insulin lispro protamine; Eli Lilly)
Overview
Sales forecast
Januvia franchise (sitagliptin; Merck & Co)
Franchise overview
Sales forecast
Lantus (insulin glargine; Sanofi-Aventis)
Overview
Sales forecast
Novomix (insulin aspart; Novo Nordisk)
Overview
Sales forecast
NovoRapid (insulin aspart + insulin aspart protamine; Novo Nordisk)
Overview
Sales forecast

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites

APPENDIX – MARKET ASSUMPTION
New product launches
Patent expiries
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
Standard Units
Japanese Market Data
Derivation of Sales Forecasts and Pricing Trends
Forecast methodology
About Datamonitor
About Datamonitor Healthcare
Datamonitor Healthcare’s therapy area capabilities
About the Disease analysis team
Disclaimer

List of Tables
Table 1: Antidiabetic sales in the seven major markets by class, 2006-07
Table 2: Comparison of leading branded drug sales ($m) for osteoarthritis in the 7MM and the Rest of World (ROW), 2007
Table 3: Sales forecasts in diabetes in the 7MM ($m), 2007-2017
Table 4: Leading branded drug sales ($m) for diabetes, 2007-2017
Table 5: Actos: key facts
Table 6: Actoplus Met: key facts
Table 7: Duetact: key facts
Table 8: Sales forecast ($m) for the Actos franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Table 9: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Actos franchise, 2007-17
Table 10: Avandia: key facts
Table 11: Avandamet: key facts
Table 12: Avandaryl: key facts
Table 13: Sales forecast ($m) for the Avandia franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Table 14: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Avandia franchise, 2007-17
Table 15: Byetta: key facts
Table 16: Sales forecast ($m) for Byetta for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Table 17: Impacting factors on the revenues of Byetta, 2007-17
Table 18: Humalog: key facts
Table 19: Sales forecast ($m) for Humalog for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Table 20: Impacting factors on the revenues of Humalog, 2007-17
Table 21: Humalog Mix: key facts
Table 22: Sales forecast ($m) for Humalog Mix for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Table 23: Impacting factors on the revenues of Humalog, 2007-17
Table 24: Januvia: key facts
Table 25: Janumet: key facts
Table 26: Sales forecast ($m) for the Januvia franchise for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Table 27: Impacting factors on the revenues of the Januvia franchise, 2007-17
Table 28: Lantus: key facts
Table 29: Sales forecast ($m) for Lantus for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Table 30: Impacting factors on the revenues of Lantus, 2007-17
Table 31: Novomix: key facts
Table 32: Sales forecast ($m) for Novomix for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Table 33: Impacting factors on the revenues of Novomix, 2007-17
Table 34: NovoRapid: key facts
Table 35: Sales forecast ($m) for NovoRapid for diabetes in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Table 36: Impacting factors on the revenues of NovoRapid, 2007-17
Table 37: Datamonitor’s launch dates for diabetes products in the 7MM, 2007-2017

List of Figures
Figure 1: Diabetes sales in the US, 5EU and Japan, ($ billion), 2004-07
Figure 2: Diabetes market sales by class in the 7MM, 2004-07
Figure 3: Sales performance of the US, 5EU and Japanese diabetes markets, 2006-07
Figure 4: Key events impacting the diabetes market 2005-2008
Figure 5: Annual global sales in the diabetes market, ($m), 2004-07
Figure 6: ROW vs. 7MM sales ($m) split in the diabetes market, 2007
Figure 7: Diabetes sales by class in the 7MM, 2007-2017
Figure 8: Market share of drug classes for diabetes, 2007 vs. 2017
Figure 9: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Actos franchise in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 10: Glitazone market split in the 7MM – Actos vs Avandia (2004-2010)
Figure 11: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Avandia franchise in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 12: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Byetta in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 13: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Humalog in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 14: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Humalog mix in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 15: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for the Januvia franchise in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 16: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Lantus in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 17: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for Novomix in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 18: Antidiabetic sales ($m) forecast for NovoRapid in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 19: Patent expiry dates used in forecasting antidiabetic drugs in the 7MM, 2007-2016