Market Report Source

Overview

Cancer therapy brand sales totaled over $30 billion in the seven major markets in 2007, growing by 20.1% since 2006. The high growth of this market makes it attractive to companies keen to emulate the blockbuster status achieved by several brands. However, with several impending patent expiries due, companies will need to work hard to maximize their return throughout the lifecycle of their brands.

Scope of this report:

• Current and future overview of the cancer therapy brands market in 2007 and 2017
• Individual country forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in each of the seven major markets
• Segmentation and analysis of market dynamics by country sales, drug class, indication, company and impacted events
• Detailed product profiles and discussion of assumptions and events used in forecast analysis

Research and analysis highlights:

The Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets contributed the majority ($26.1 billion, 85%) of cancer therapy brand sales in 2007. Datamonitor forecasts the total market to grow to $62.4 billion by 2017 at a CAGR of 7%. The Top 20 brands in 2017 will still contribute a high proportion of this (80%) with sales reaching $50.2 billion.

Targeted therapies will increasingly dominate the Top 20 cancer brands leaderboard, accounting for 12 of the Top 20 brands in the seven major markets in 2017. Datamonitor forecasts Avastin to become the leading cancer therapy brand, facilitated by further indication expansion and high physician familiarity.

Genentech/Roche are the dominant force in the market with an oncology portfolio including the three leading cancer therapy brands (Rituxan, Avastin and Herceptin). The companies are set to continue this dominance, with Rituxan, Avastin and Herceptin forecast to remain the top three brands in 2017, achieving aggregate 7MM sales of over $23 billion.

Key reasons to read this report:

• Understand market specific drivers and predict the future potential of key cancer therapy brands
• Quantify the impact of key patent expiries and product launches and gain a valuable insight into the market dynamics
• Consider, assess and react to opportunities and risks influencing the leading cancer therapy brands

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor insight into the cancer therapy brands market
Related reports
Upcoming reports

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION
Definition of the cancer market
Antihormonal therapies by ATC class
L2A3 – Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogs
L2B1 – Anti-estrogens
L2B2 – Anti-androgens
Cytotoxic therapies by ATC class
L1A – Alkylating agents
L1B – Antimetabolites
L1C – Vinca alkaloids and other plant-derived products
L1D – Antineoplastic antibiotics
L1X2 – Platinum compounds
Report classification of cytotoxic therapies
Antimetabolites
Mitotic inhibitors
DNA-interactive agents
Topoisomerase poisons
Non-covalent DNA binding drugs
Covalent DNA binding drugs – alkylating agents
Targeted therapies by ATC class
L1X3 – Antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies
L1X9 – All other antineoplastics

CHAPTER 3 MARKET OVERVIEW AND FORECASTS
Seven major markets
Current market assessment
Sales by country – Total market
Sales by country – Top 20 brands
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Future market assessment
Sales by country – Total market
Sales by country – Top 20 brands
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats

US
Current market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Future market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats

Japan
Current market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Future market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats

5EU
Current market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Future market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats

France
Current market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Future market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats

Germany
Current market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Future market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats

Italy
Current market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Future market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats

Spain
Current market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Future market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats

UK
Current market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Future market assessment
Sales by class – Total market
Sales by class – Top 20 brands
Sales by brand – Top 20 brands
Opportunities and threats
Opportunities
Threats

Rest of World snapshot
Global cancer therapies market
Global antihormonal therapy cancer brands market
Global cytotoxic therapy cancer brands market
Global targeted therapy cancer brands market

CHAPTER 4 BRAND DYNAMICS
Brand analysis by indication
Solid tumors versus hematological malignancies
Current market assessment
Future market assessment
Analysis of brand by number of approved indications
Cytotoxic therapies are the leading class of brand in terms of the number of approved indications
Analysis of indication by number of cancer therapy brands in the Top 20
Breast cancer is the dominant indication in terms of the number of approved agents in the Top 20
cancer therapy brands
Brand analysis by mode of administration
Current market assessment
Future market assessment
Brand analysis by company
A total of 30 companies are involved in the marketing of the Top 20 cancer brands in
the seven major markets
AstraZeneca and Roche are the leading companies in terms of the number of marketed
Top 20 cancer brands
Roche is firmly established as the leading company in the oncology market
AstraZeneca’s oncology portfolio is set to experience the negative impact of patent expiry on all of its
key products over the next 5 years
Co-marketed cancer therapy brands had the largest market share in 2007
Brand analysis by event
Avastin will experience the greatest number of forecast events across the seven major
markets
Top 20 brands versus rest of market snapshot
Seven major markets

• US
• Japan
• 5EU

CHAPTER 5 BRAND PROFILES AND FORECASTS

Abraxane (paclitaxel, albumin-bound formulation; Abraxis/AstraZeneca/Taiho)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Next generation taxane set to enter the EU markets

Alimta (pemetrexed; Eli Lilly)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Line extensions and horizontal expansion will boost Alimta’s sales over the forecast period

Arimidex (anastrozole; AstraZeneca)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Arimidex set to maintain its blockbuster and gold-standard status despite patent expiry

Aromasin (exemestane; Pfizer)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Aromasin fails to match its competitors in-class, although its alternative mechanism of action presents some opportunity

Avastin (bevacizumab; Genentech/Roche/Chugai)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Avastin set to become the biggest-selling targeted therapy cancer brand in the seven major markets in 2009

Camptosar (irinotecan; Yakult Honsha/Daiichi Seiyaku)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Increased generic competition decreases sales across the seven major markets

Casodex (bicalutamide; AstraZeneca)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Upcoming patent expiries set to hamper sales of this class-leading brand

Dacogen (decitabine; Eisai/Johnson & Johnson)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Anticipated high uptake set to make Dacogen a leading cytotoxic therapy cancer brand

Doxil (pegylated liposomal doxorubicin; Johnson & Johnson/Schering-Plough)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017

Ellence (epirubicin; Pfizer/Kyowa Hakko Kogyo)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017

Eloxatin (oxaliplatin; Sanofi-Aventis)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Top-seller likely to face strong generic competition

Erbitux (cetuximab; ImClone/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck Serono)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Erbitux seven major market sales passed $1 billion in 2007 and are set for modest growth through line
extensions and new approvals

Femara (letrozole; Novartis/Chugai)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Final results from FACE trial could indicate definitive superiority for Femara over Arimidex

Furtulon (doxifluridine; Roche/Chugai)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017

Gemzar (gemcitabine; Eli Lilly)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Blockbuster sales set to be dented by generic entry

Gleevec (imatinib; Novartis)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Patent expiries across the seven major markets will curb long-term growth of Gleevec sales

Herceptin (trastuzumab; Genentech/Roche/Chugai)
Brand profile
8/22/
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Herceptin well placed to maintain strong performance in breast cancer market

Iressa (gefitinib; AstraZeneca)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Iressa’s declining sales could experience a turnaround following new Phase III lung cancer trial

Ixempra (ixabepilone; Bristol-Myers Squibb)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Launch in big indication presents opportunity for novel mitotic inhibitor

Lupron (leuprorelin; Takeda/Abbott/TAP/Wyeth)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events*
Brand forecast to 2017
Lupron’s lifecycle has been extended by the launch of various formulations

Nexavar (sorafenib; Onyx/Bayer Schering)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Liver cancer approval will help Nexavar to make up for disappointing performance in RCC market

Nolvadex (tamoxifen; AstraZeneca)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events*
Brand forecast to 2017
Advent of aromatase inhibitors and high generic competition continues to threaten brand sales

Revlimid (lenalidomide; Celgene)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
First-line multiple myeloma approval will allow Revlimid to reach sales of $1 billion in the seven major markets by 2015

Rituxan (rituximab; Biogen Idec/Genentech/Roche/Zenyaku Kogyo)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Rituxan was the biggest-selling targeted therapy cancer brand in 2007

Sprycel (dasatinib; Bristol-Myers Squibb)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Generic imatinib and competition from Tasigna will limit Sprycel’s uptake in first-line CML

Suprefact (buserelin; Sanofi-Aventis)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events*
Brand forecast to 2017

Sutent (sunitinib; Pfizer)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Indication expansion will enable Sutent to become the leading small molecule targeted therapy cancer brand in 2017

Tarceva (erlotinib; OSI/Genentech/Roche/Chugai)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Additional lung cancer approvals will help drive growth of Tarceva sales

Tasigna (nilotinib; Novartis)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Tasigna is well-positioned to compensate for Gleevec patent expiry

Taxol (paclitaxel; Bristol-Myers Squibb)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017

Taxotere (docetaxel; Sanofi-Aventis)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Approval in new indications and extensive use in major tumor types means blockbuster status will be maintained

Temodar (temozolomide; Schering-Plough)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017

Thalomid (thalidomide; Celgene)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017

TS-1 (tegafur + gimeracil + oteracil; Taiho/Sanofi-Aventis)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017

Tykerb (lapatinib; GlaxoSmithKline)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Breast cancer line extensions will push Tykerb sales beyond $1.4 billion in the seven major markets by 2017

UFT (tegafur + uracil; Taiho/Merck Serono)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017

Vectibix (panitumumab; Amgen/Takeda)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Vectibix is set to lag behind Erbitux and Avastin in the colorectal cancer market

Velcade (bortezomib; Takeda/Johnson & Johnson)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Velcade seven major market sales will reach $1 billion by 2010 following approval for first-line multiple myeloma

Vidaza (azacitidine; Celgene/Nippon Shinyaku)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
Entry into new markets will help boost sales to blockbuster status

Xeloda (capecitabine; Roche/Chugai)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events
Brand forecast to 2017
New indications and line extensions will ensure increasing sales

Zoladex (goserelin; AstraZeneca)
Brand profile
Brand forecast events*
Brand forecast to 2017
Despite equivalent clinical efficacy to Lupron, Zoladex remains the second best-selling LHRH analog

APPENDIX A – MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
Country-specific assumptions and events

• Effect of Medicare Modernization Act in the US
• Biennial price cuts in Japan
• Generic erosion assumptions

Data definitions, limitations and assumptions

• Standard units
• Japanese market data
• Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends

Forecasts
Forecast methodology

APPENDIX B
Bibliography
Datamonitor reports
List of tables
List of figures
Abbreviations
Report methodology
About Datamonitor

• About Datamonitor Healthcare
• Disclaimer

List of Figures
Figure 1: Individual country sales and market share of all cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets, 2007
Figure 2: Percentage contribution of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands to the total cancer therapy brands market in the seven major markets, 2007
Figure 3: Individual country total sales and market share of their respective Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets, 2007
Figure 4: Total seven major market sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007
Figure 5: Sales and market share of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets by drug class, 2007
Figure 6: Sales and market share of the Top 10 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets, 2007
Figure 7: Total forecast sales of cancer therapy brands by country in the seven major markets, 2007-2017
Figure 8: Total forecast sales and market share of cancer therapy brands by country, 2017
Figure 9: Forecast percentage contribution of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands to the total cancer therapy brands market in the seven major markets, 2017
Figure 10: Individual country total forecast sales and market share of their respective Top 20 cancer therapy brands across the seven major markets, 2017
Figure 11: Total seven major market forecast sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007-2017
Figure 12: Total seven major market forecast sales and market share of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2017
Figure 13: Forecast sales and market share of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets by drug class, 2017
Figure 14: Forecast sales and market share of the top 10 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets, 2017
Figure 15: Seven major market population aged 60 and over, 2000-2050
Figure 16: Forecast incidence of cancer across the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2001-2015
Figure 17: Global therapy sales ($m), 2007-2012
Figure 18: US sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007
Figure 19: Sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the US by drug class, 2007
Figure 20: Sales and market share of the Top 10 cancer therapy brands in the US, 2007
Figure 21: US total forecast sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007-2017
Figure 22: US total forecast sales and market share of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2017
Figure 23: Forecast sales and market share of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the US by drug class, 2017
Figure 24: Forecast sales and market share of the top 10 cancer therapy brands in the US, 2017
Figure 25: Japan sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007
Figure 26: Sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in Japan by drug class, 2007
Figure 27: Sales and market share of the Top 10 cancer therapy brands in Japan, 2007
Figure 28: Japan total forecast sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007-2017
Figure 29: Japan total forecast sales and market share of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2017
Figure 30: Forecast sales and market share of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in Japan by drug class, 2017
Figure 31: Forecast sales and market share of the top 10 cancer therapy brands in Japan, 2017
Figure 32: 5EU sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007
Figure 33: Sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the 5EU by drug class, 2007
Figure 34: Sales and market share of the Top 10 cancer therapy brands in the 5EU, 2007
Figure 35: 5EU total forecast sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007-2017
Figure 36: 5EU total forecast sales and market share of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2017
Figure 37: Forecast sales and market share of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the 5EU by drug class, 2017
Figure 38: Forecast sales and market share of the top 10 cancer therapy brands in the 5EU, 2017
Figure 39: France sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007
Figure 40: Sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in France by drug class, 2007
Figure 41: Sales and market share of the Top 10 cancer therapy brands in France, 2007
Figure 42: France total forecast sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007-2017
Figure 43: France total forecast sales and market share of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2017
Figure 44: Forecast sales and market share of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in France by drug class, 2017
Figure 45: Forecast sales and market share of the top 10 cancer therapy brands in France, 2017
Figure 46: Germany sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007
Figure 47: Sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in Germany by drug class, 2007
Figure 48: Sales and market share of the Top 10 cancer therapy brands in Germany, 2007
Figure 49: Germany total forecast sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007-2017
Figure 50: Germany total forecast sales and market share of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2017
Figure 51: Forecast sales and market share of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in Germany by drug class, 2017
Figure 52: Forecast sales and market share of the top 10 cancer therapy brands in Germany, 2017
Figure 53: Italy sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007
Figure 54: Sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in Italy by drug class, 2007
Figure 55: Sales and market share of the Top 10 cancer therapy brands in Italy, 2007
Figure 56: Italy total forecast sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007-2017
Figure 57: Italy total forecast sales and market share of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2017
Figure 58: Forecast sales and market share of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in Italy by drug class, 2017
Figure 59: Forecast sales and market share of the top 10 cancer therapy brands in Italy, 2017
Figure 60: Spain sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007
Figure 61: Sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in Spain by drug class, 2007
Figure 62: Sales and market share of the Top 10 cancer therapy brands in Spain, 2007
Figure 63: Spain total forecast sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007-2017
Figure 64: Spain total forecast sales and market share of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2017
Figure 65: Forecast sales and market share of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in Spain by drug class, 2017
Figure 66: Forecast sales and market share of the top 10 cancer therapy brands in Spain, 2017
Figure 67: UK sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007
Figure 68: Sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the UK by drug class, 2007
Figure 69: Sales and market share of the Top 10 cancer therapy brands in the UK, 2007
Figure 70: UK total forecast sales of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2007-2017
Figure 71: UK total forecast sales and market share of all cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2017
Figure 72: Forecast sales and market share of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the UK by drug class, 2017
Figure 73: Forecast sales and market share of the top 10 cancer therapy brands in the UK, 2017
Figure 74: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW total cancer therapy sales and market share, 2007
Figure 75: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW antihormonal cancer therapy sales and market share, 2007
Figure 76: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW cytotoxic therapy sales and market share, 2007
Figure 77: US, Japan, 5EU and RoW targeted cancer therapy sales and market share, 2007
Figure 78: Seven major market sales of all cancer therapy brands by type of indication, 2007
Figure 79: Sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets by type of indication, 2007
Figure 80: Forecast seven major market sales of all cancer therapy brands by type of indication, 2017
Figure 81: Forecast sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets by type of indication, 2017
Figure 82: Analysis of brands included in the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in 2007 or 2017 by number of approved oncology indications
Figure 83: Analysis of oncology indications by number of approved brands included in the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in 2007 or 2017
Figure 84: Seven major market sales of all cancer therapy brands by mode of administration, 2007
Figure 85: Sales of Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets by mode of administration, 2007
Figure 86: Forecast seven major market sales of all cancer therapy brands by mode of administration, 2017
Figure 87: Forecast sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets by mode of administration, 2017
Figure 88: Analysis of companies by number of cancer therapy brands included in the Top 20 in 2007 or 2017
Figure 89: Seven major market sales of all cancer therapy brands marketed by single companies versus sales of all cancer therapy brands marketed by more than one company, 2007
Figure 90: Seven major market sales of Top 20 cancer therapy brands marketed by single companies versus sales of Top 20 cancer therapy brands marketed by more than one company, 2007
Figure 91: Analysis of Top 20 cancer therapy brands by number of forecast events, 2008-2017
Figure 92: Seven major market volume and value sales by drug class for the Top 20 brands compared to the rest of the market, 2007
Figure 93: US volume and value sales by drug class for the Top 20 brands compared to the rest of the market, 2007
Figure 94: Japan volume and value sales by drug class for the Top 20 brands compared to the rest of the market, 2007
Figure 95: 5EU volume and value sales by drug class for the Top 20 brands compared to the rest of the market, 2007