Market Report Source

Overview

Datamonitor expects the antihypertensives market to reach $37 billion, across the seven major markets, by 2017. The growth will be driven by the uptake of Novartis’s Tekturna, as well as increased use of ARBs, and their combinations. However, the expiries of some key patents, particularly Pfizer’s Norvasc and Merck’s Cozaar, will restrain market growth.

Scope of this report:

• Description of the competitive landscape in antihypertensives across seven major markets with market definition and overview.
• Definition of the unmet needs in the antihypertensives market.
• Event-driven updated sales forecasts for 2008-17 across the seven major markets: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan.
• Analysis of major events and brand dynamics affecting the hypertension market.

Research and analysis highlights:

The growth rate of the antihypertensive market is declining. The market is mature and does not present an attractive opportunity for R&D expenditure; consequently Big Pharma are shying away from the pursuit of novel mechanisms of action in favour of developing more efficacious combination therapies.

Cozaar’s and Diovan’s patent expiries in the US have the potential to alter the structure of the antihypertensive market dramatically. Threats of generic substitution and money-saving healthcare strategies which have plagued other markets, are now approaching the successful ARB class, and will have an impact on the whole antihypertensive market.

Novartis is set to strengthen its position in the antihypertensives arena; Tekturna is expected to achieve moderate sales and together with Exforge form a potential for market expansion. This however will be set back by the premature expiry of Pfizer’s Norvasc patent.

Key reasons to read this report:

• Quantify the future size of the antihypertensives market and identify opportunities for new products.
• Learn how recent changes related to product expiries will shape the antihypertensives market.
• Understand the barriers to uptake for novel antihypertensive agents, and the need for paradigm shift in clinical trial design.

Table of Contents

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the cardiovascular pharmaceutical analysis team 2

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Strategic scoping and focus 3
Datamonitor insight into the disease market 3
Related reports 5

CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 7
Definition of drug classes 7
Current seven major market assessment 7
The antihypertensives market segmented by class 7
The antihypertensives market segmented by country 10
Antihypertensive market landscape 13
Historical influences on the market 14
Strategic scope 16
Consideration of market unmet needs 16
Conflicting evidence from clinical trials and guideline alterations 16
Paradigm shift in antihypertensive R&D 17
Defining the unmet need in the antihypertensives market 17
Beyond blood pressure reduction 17
Improved diagnosis 18
Improved blood pressure management 19
Increased uptake of fixed-dose combination therapies 20
Targeting global cardiovascular risk and organ damage 21
Patient and primary care physician education 22
Rest of World snapshot 24
Current market assessment 24
Future seven major market assessment 28
Overview 28
Market drivers and market restraints 31

• Key factors driving growth of the antihypertensives market 31
• Factors restraining growth of the antihypertensives market 32

Forecast summary 33
Key events summary 36

CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS 37
Overview of the competitive landscape 37
Angiotensin receptor blockers 38
Class level events 41
Blopress/Atacand (candesartan) 44
Diovan/Co-Diovan (valsartan/valsartan + HCTZ) 47
Exforge (valsartan+ amlodipine) 50
Cozaar (losartan)/Hyzaar (losartan + HTCZ) 51
Micardis (telmisartan) 54
Benicar (olmesartan) 57
Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors 60
Lotrel (amlodipine + benazepril) 63
Beta blockers 64
Betaloc (metoprolol) 68
Kredex (carvedilol) 70
Calcium channel blockers 71
Norvasc (amlodipine) 73
Diuretics 75
Renin inhibitors 76
Tekturna/Rasilez (aliskiren) 77

BIBLIOGRAPHY 81
Journal papers 81
Websites 84
Datamonitor reports 84

APPENDIX A: MARKET ASSUMPTIONS 85
New product launches 85
Patent expiries 86
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 87

• Standard units 87
• Japanese market data 87
• Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends 87

Forecast methodology 88

APPENDIX B 89
Contributing experts 89
Report methodology 89
About Datamonitor 89

• About Datamonitor Healthcare 90
• About the Disease analysis team 91

Disclaimer 92

List of Tables
Table 1: Antihypertensive sales in the seven major markets by class, 2006-07 8

Table 2: Sales of antihypertensives across the seven major markets by country, 2007 10

Table 3: Sales of the leading branded drugs for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007 14

Table 4: Leading branded drug sales for hypertension in the seven major markets and Rest of World, 2007 27

Table 5: Forecast sales growth of hypertension drugs by class in the seven major markets, 2007-17 31

Table 6: Forecast sales of antihypertensives in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 33

Table 7: Leading angiotensin receptor blockers sales ($m) for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 40

Table 8: Leading angiotensin receptor blockers single pill combinations sales ($m) for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 41

Table 9: Blopress/Atacand: key facts 44

Table 10: Sales forecast ($m) for Blopress for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 45

Table 11: Sales forecast ($m) for Atacand for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 45

Table 12: Diovan: key facts 47

Table 13: Sales forecast ($m) for Diovan for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 48

Table 14: Sales forecast ($m) for Co-Diovan for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-17 49

Table 15: Key facts: Cozaar 51

Table 16: Sales forecast ($m) for Cozaar for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 52

Table 17: Sales forecast ($m) for Hyzaar for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 53

Table 18: Micardis: key facts 54

Table 19: Sales forecast ($m) for Micardis for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 56

Table 20: Benicar: key facts 57

Table 21: Sales forecast ($m) for Benicar for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 59

Table 22: Leading angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors sales ($m) for hypertension in the 7MMseven major markets, 2007-2017 62

Table 23: Leading beta-blockers sales ($m) for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 67

Table 24: Betaloc/Toprol-XL: key facts 68

Table 25: Sales forecast ($m) for Betaloc for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 68

Table 26: Kredex/Coreg: key facts 70

Table 27: Leading calcium-channel blockers sales ($m) for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 73

Table 28: Norvasc: key facts 73

Table 29: Datamonitor’s launch dates for hypertension products in the 5EU and US, 2008-2017 85

Table 30: Patent expiry dates used in forecasting antihypertensive sales in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 86

List of Figures

Figure 1: Antihypertensive market share by class in the seven major markets, 2004-07 9

Figure 2: Growth in the antihypertensives market by country, 2004-07 11

Figure 3: Antihypertensive sales in the US, 5EU and Japan, 2004-07 12

Figure 4: Overall antihypertensive sales by country, 2006-07 13

Figure 5: Key events impacting the hypertension market, 2004-08 16

Figure 6: Sales of antihypertensives by market type, 2007 25

Figure 7: Global hypertension sales growth by market segment, 2004-07 26

Figure 8: Comparison of leading branded drug growth for hypertension in the seven major markets and Rest of World*, 2006-07 27

Figure 9: Forecast sales of antihypertensive drugs by class and value in the seven major markets ($ bn), 2007-2017 29

Figure 10: Forecast sales of antihypertensive drugs by class and volume in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 30

Figure 11: Market share of antihypertensives by class, 2007 and 2017 35

Figure 12: Impact of key events on the antihypertensive market, 2007-2017 36

Figure 13: Market share of leading brands, 2007 and 2017 38

Figure 14: Forecast sales of angiotensin receptor blockers, 2007-2017 39

Figure 15: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Blopress in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 46

Figure 16: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Diovan in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 50

Figure 17: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Cozaar in the seven major markets, 2007-17 54

Figure 18: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Micardis in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 57

Figure 19: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Benicar in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 60

Figure 20: Forecast sales of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, 2007-17 63

Figure 21: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Lotrel in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 64

Figure 22: Forecast sales of beta blockers, 2007-17 66

Figure 23: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for BETALOC in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 69

Figure 24: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Kredex in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 71

Figure 25: Forecast sales of calcium channel blockers in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 72

Figure 26: Hypertension -specific sales ($m) forecast for Norvasc in the US only, 2007-2017 75