The Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2012:
Strategic Analysis of the Sales Outlook for Big Pharma, Mid Pharma, Japan Pharma and Biotech
Pages: 160
Publisher: Datamonitor
Date Published: December 2007
Format: PDF
Price: $7600
Overview
Introduction
Based on an analysis of 43 companies and 1,200+ products, Datamonitor forecasts that pharmaceutical industry ethical sales will increase at a modest 3.2% CAGR 2006 to 2012. However, behind this industry average figure there are strategic segments of the market that offer double-digit growth rates through barriers against generic competition and the opportunity for aggressive indication broadening.
Scope
Strategic Analysis of the Sales Outlook to 2012 for Big Pharma, Mid Pharma, Japan Pharma and Biotech Quantitative analysis of the revenue balance of launches and expiries for each peer set member to 2012 Assessment of current and forecast 2012 therapy area sales and molecule type focus for each peer set member
Highlights
Faced with failing growth, Big Pharma is expected to pursue strategic options including operational cost efficiencies, M&A with other Big Pharma companies, biotech, Mid Pharma CNS players and/or generics manufacturers and acquisitional moves outside of ‘pharma space’ to increase presence in medical devices, diagnostics and consumer healthcare.
Reasons to Purchase
Understand the strategic motives behind the recent wave of Big Pharma acquisitions of monoclonal antibody companies Identify the rare examples of promising high growth CNS products located in the Mid Pharma peer set Learn how biotech faces slowing growth momentum due to commercial pressures on therapeutic proteins.
Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key findings
Introduction to the PharmaVitae Universe
Summary of analysis
PharmaVitae Universe and Peer Set overviews
PharmaVitae Universe overview
Big Pharma overview
Mid Pharma overview
Biotech overview
Japan Pharma overview
Peer Set analysis
The PharmaVitae universe will grow at a very modest 2006-12 CAGR of 3.2%
Peer sets will exhibit significantly different growth rates over 2006-12
Company analysis
PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by company, 2006-12
Company 2006 sales x compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 matrix
Peer sets occupy discrete regions of the 2006 sales x 2006-12 CAGR matrix
Scale limit of the 2006 sales x 2006-12 CAGR matrix
Therapy area analysis
PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by therapy area, 2006-12
Therapy area compound annual growth rates, 2006-12
Peer Set therapy area focus, 2006
Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on basis of therapy area focus
Molecule type analysis
PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by molecule type, 2006-12
Molecule type compound annual growth rates, 2006-12
Peer Set molecule type focus, 2006
Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on the basis of molecule type
Degree of small molecule focus is a key determinant of generic risk
Launches and expiries analysis
Launch / Core / Expiry (LCE) methodology
Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12
The rest of this report
CHAPTER 2 BIG PHARMA
Key findings
Big Pharma introduction
Big Pharma members
Big Pharma overview
Big Pharma sales outlook
Big Pharma sales forecasts, 2006-12
Big Pharma peer set sales forecast, 2006-12
Big Pharma sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12
Big Pharma change in annual sales, 2006-12
Big Pharma therapy area analysis
Big Pharma by therapy area sales, 2006
Big Pharma by therapy area sales, 2012
Big Pharma molecule type analysis
Big Pharma by molecule type focus, 2006
Big Pharma by molecule type focus, 2012
Big Pharma launches and expiries analysis
Big Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12
Big Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12
CHAPTER 3 MID PHARMA
Key findings
Mid Pharma introduction
Mid Pharma members
Mid Pharma overview
Mid Pharma sales outlook
Mid Pharma sales forecasts, 2006-12
Mid Pharma peer set sales forecast, 2006-12
Mid Pharma sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12
Mid Pharma change in annual sales, 2006-12
Mid Pharma therapy area analysis
Mid Pharma by therapy area sales, 2006
Mid Pharma by therapy area sales, 2012
Mid Pharma molecule type analysis
Mid Pharma by molecule type focus, 2006
Mid Pharma by molecule type focus, 2012
Mid Pharma launches and expiries analysis
Mid Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12
Mid Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12
CHAPTER 4 BIOTECH
Key findings
Biotech introduction
Biotech members
Biotech overview
Biotech sales outlook
Biotech sales forecasts, 2006-12
Biotech peer set sales forecast, 2006-12
Biotech sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12
Biotech change in annual sales, 2006-12
Biotech therapy area analysis
Biotech by therapy area sales, 2006
Biotech by therapy area sales, 2012
Biotech molecule type analysis
Biotech by molecule type focus, 2006
Biotech by molecule type focus, 2012
Biotech launches and expiries analysis
Biotech change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12
Biotech sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12
CHAPTER 5 JAPAN PHARMA
Key findings
Japan Pharma introduction
Japan Pharma members
Japan Pharma overview
Japan Pharma sales outlook
Japan Pharma sales forecasts, 2006-12
Japan Pharma peer set sales forecast, 2006-12
Japan Pharma sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12
Japan Pharma change in annual sales, 2006-12
Japan Pharma therapy area analysis
Japan Pharma by therapy area sales, 2006
Japan Pharma by therapy area sales, 2012
Japan Pharma molecule type analysis
Japan Pharma by molecule type focus, 2006
Japan Pharma by molecule type focus, 2012
Japan Pharma launches and expiries analysis
Japan Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12
Japan Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX
References
Exchange rates
List of Tables
Table 1: PharmaVitae Company Universe by Peer Set
Table 2: Therapy area abbreviations (used throughout report)
Table 3: Summary of analysis
Table 4: PharmaVitae universe sales forecast by company ($m), 2006-12
Table 5: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by therapy area ($m), 2006-12
Table 6: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by molecule type ($m), 2006-12
Table 7: Big Pharma members
Table 8: Big Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12
Table 9: Big Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12
Table 10: Big Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12
Table 11: Mid Pharma members
Table 12: Mid Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12
Table 13: Mid Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12
Table 14: Mid Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12
Table 15: Biotech members
Table 16: Biotech sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12
Table 17: Biotech change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12
Table 18: Biotech sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12
Table 19: Japan Pharma members
Table 20: Japan Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12
Table 21: Japan Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12
Table 22: Japan Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12
Table 23: Exchange rates, 2007
List of Figures
Figure 1: PharmaVitae Universe overview
Figure 2: Big Pharma overview
Figure 3: Mid Pharma overview
Figure 4: Biotech overview
Figure 5: Japan Pharma overview
Figure 6: PharmaVitae Universe by Peer Set sales ($m), 2006-12
Figure 7: Peer Set sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12
Figure 8: Company 2006 sales ($m) x 2006-12 CAGR (%) matrix
Figure 9: Peer Sets occupy discrete regions of the 2006 sales ($m) x 2006-12 CAGR (%) matrix
Figure 10: Scale limit of the 2006 sales ($m) x 2006-12 CAGR (%) matrix
Figure 11: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by therapy area ($m), 2006-12
Figure 12: Therapy area compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12
Figure 13: Peer Set therapy area focus (%), 2006
Figure 14: Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on basis of therapy area focus
Figure 15: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by molecule type ($m), 2006-12
Figure 16: Molecule type compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12
Figure 17: Peer Set molecule type focus (%), 2006
Figure 18: Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on the basis of molecule type
Figure 19: Small molecule focus (%), 2006 x Change in sales of expiry portfolio (%), 2006-12
Figure 20: GlaxoSmithKline’s launch portfolio, sales ($m), 2006-12
Figure 21: GlaxoSmithKline’s expiry portfolio, sales ($m), 2006-12
Figure 22: GlaxoSmithKline’s core portfolio, sales ($m), 2006-12
Figure 23: GlaxoSmithKline launch/core/expiry analysis, change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12
Figure 24: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12
Figure 25: Big Pharma overview
Figure 26: Big Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12
Figure 27: Big Pharma peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12
Figure 28: Big Pharma sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12
Figure 29: Big Pharma change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12
Figure 30: Big Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2006
Figure 31: Big Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2012
Figure 32: Big Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2006
Figure 33: Big Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2012
Figure 34: Big Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12
Figure 35: Mid Pharma overview
Figure 36: Mid Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12
Figure 37: Mid Pharma peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12
Figure 38: Mid Pharma sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12
Figure 39: Mid Pharma change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12
Figure 40: Mid Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2006
Figure 41: Mid Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2012
Figure 42: Mid Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2006
Figure 43: Mid Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2012
Figure 44: Mid Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12
Figure 45: Biotech overview
Figure 46: Biotech sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12
Figure 47: Biotech peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12
Figure 48: Biotech sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12
Figure 49: Biotech change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12
Figure 50: Biotech by therapy area sales ($m), 2006
Figure 51: Biotech by therapy area sales ($m), 2012
Figure 52: Biotech by molecule type focus (%), 2006
Figure 53: Biotech by molecule type focus (%), 2012
Figure 54: Biotech sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12
Figure 55: Japan Pharma overview
Figure 56: Japan Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12
Figure 57: Japan Pharma peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12
Figure 58: Japan Pharma sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12
Figure 59: Japan Pharma change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12
Figure 60: Japan Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2006
Figure 61: Japan Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2012
Figure 62: Japan Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2006
Figure 63: Japan Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2012
Figure 64: Japan Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12
