Market Report Source

Overview

Introduction
Sales of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands in each of the seven major markets totaled $24.5 billion in 2006 and are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.6% to $45.9 billion by 2016. Four newly marketed drugs are expected to become part of the Top 20 cancer therapy brands during the forecast period and are set to increase the 2016 sales of the existing Top 20 cancer therapy brands to $52.7 billion.

Scope of this report

• Overview of the current Top 20 cancer therapy brands market
• Individual country, 5EU and seven-market sales forecasts from 2006 to 2016 for the leading cancer therapy brands
• Segmentation and analysis of market dynamics by country sales, drug class, indication, company and impacted events
• Detailed product profiles and discussion of assumptions and events used in forecast analysis

Research and analysis highlights
Four newly marketed drugs are expected to become part of the Top 20 cancer therapies during the forecast period: Sutent (sunitinib; Pfizer), Nexavar (sorafenib; Onyx/Bayer), Vectibix (panitumumab; Amgen) and Tykerb (lapatinib; GSK). These products combined with the existing Top 20 cancer therapies are set to reach $52.7 billion in sales by 2016.

The Top 20 cancer therapy brands are forecast to experience 144 different events between 2007 and 2016. Considering the fact that many of these events will take place in each of the seven major markets, Datamonitor expects the Top 20 cancer therapy brands to experience 792 events across the 7MM.

The 35 drugs that make up the Top 20 cancer therapy brands have gained approval in 18 different tumor types. Three of the ‘big four’ tumor types boast the highest number of leading cancer therapy brands namely: breast cancer with 18 of the 35 forecasted drugs, non-small cell lung cancer with eight, and colorectal cancer with seven.

Key reasons to read this report

• Understand market specific drivers and predict the future potential of key cancer therapy brands
• Quantify the impact of key patent expiries and product launches and gain a valuable insight into the market dynamics
• Consider, assess and react to opportunities and risks influencing the leading cancer therapy brands

Table of Contents

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE

About the Oncology pharmaceutical analysis team

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Scope of the analysis

Datamonitor insight into the cancer market

Related reports

Upcoming reports

CHAPTER 2 MARKET OVERVIEW AND DYNAMICS

The Top 20 cancer therapy brands – 2006

The current market situation

The Top 20 cancer therapy brands – 2016

Sales by class

Molecular targeted therapies set to dominate over the forecast period

US

Japan

France

Germany

Italy

Spain

UK

5EU

Seven major markets

Sales by country

Other countries slowly catching up with the lucrative US market

Brands by class and mode of action

Cytotoxic therapies still make up the majority of the forecasted cancer therapy brands

Brands by indication

Breast cancer drugs strongly dominate among the forecasted cancer therapy brands

Brands by company

AstraZeneca and Roche are behind the highest number of forecasted cancer therapy brands

Brands by event

Avastin set to experience the highest number of different events over the forecast period

Brands by compound annual growth rate

Molecular targeted therapies are driving the positive CAGR for the forecasted cancer therapy brands

CHAPTER 3 MARKET DEFINITION

Market definition for this report

Cytotoxic therapies

L1A – Alkylating agents

L1B – Antimetabolites

L1C – Vinca alkaloids and other plant-derived products

L1D – Antineoplastic antibiotics

L1X2 – Platinum compounds

Antihormonal therapies

L2A3 – Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogs

L2B1 – Anti-estrogens

L2B2 – Anti-androgens

L2B3 – Aromatase inhibitors

Molecular targeted therapies

L1X3 – Antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies

L1X9 – All other antineoplastics

CHAPTER 4 COUNTRY MARKET ASSESSMENTS

Current and future opportunities and threats in the cancer market

Global opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

US: opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

Japan: opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

5EU: opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

France: opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

Germany: opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

Italy: opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

Spain: opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

UK: opportunities and threats

Opportunities

Threats

Summary of environmental issues affecting the cancer market size

CHAPTER 5 FORECAST ANALYSIS

Country-specific assumptions and events

Effect of Medicare Modernization Act in the US

Biennial price cuts in Japan

Generic erosion assumptions

Product-specific assumptions and events

Cytotoxic therapies

Abraxane (ABX-007; Abraxis BioScience/AstraZeneca)

Alimta (Pemetrexed; Eli Lilly)

Camptosar/Campto (Irinotecan; Pfizer/Yakult/Daiichi)

Doxil/Caelyx (Pegylated liposomal doxorubicin; Johnson & Johnson/Schering-Plough)

Ellence/Farmorubicin (Epirubicin; Pfizer)

Eloxatin (Oxaliplatin; Sanofi-Aventis)

Furtulon (Doxifluridine; Roche/Chugai)

Gemzar (Gemcitabine; Eli Lilly)

Navelbine (Vinorelbine; Pierre Fabre/GlaxoSmithKline)

Paraplatin (Carboplatin; Bristol-Myers Squibb)

Taxol (Paclitaxel; Bristol-Myers Squibb)

Taxotere (Docetaxel; Sanofi-Aventis)

Temodar/Temodal (Temozolomide; Schering-Plough)

TS-1 (Tegafur, gimeracil & oteracil; Taiho Pharmaceuticals/Sanofi-Aventis)

UFT (Tegafur & uracil; Taiho Pharmaceuticals)

Xeloda (Capecitabine; Roche)

Antihormonal therapies

Arimidex (Anastrozole; AstraZeneca)

Aromasin (Exemestane; Pfizer)

Casodex (Bicalutamide; AstraZeneca)

Femara (Letrozole; Novartis)

Lupron (Leuprorelin; Takeda/TAP/Abbott/Wyeth)

Nolvadex (Tamoxifen; AstraZeneca

Zoladex (Goserelin; AstraZeneca)

Molecular targeted therapies

Avastin (Bevacizumab; Genentech/Roche)

Erbitux (Cetuximab; ImClone/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck Serono)

Gleevec/Glivec (Imatinib; Novartis)

Herceptin (Trastuzumab; Genentech/Roche)

Iressa (Gefitinib; AstraZeneca)

Nexavar (Sorafenib; Onyx Pharmaceuticals/Bayer Schering)

Rituxan/MabThera (Rituximab; Biogen Idec/Genentech/Roche)

Sutent (Sunitinib; Pfizer)

Tarceva (Erlotinib; OSI Pharmaceuticals/Genentech/Roche)

Tykerb (Lapatinib; GlaxoSmithKline)

Vectibix (Panitumumab; Amgen)

Velcade (Bortezomib; Ortho Biotech/Millennium Pharmaceuticals)

Data definitions, limitations and assumptions

Standard units

Japanese market data

Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends

Forecasts

Forecast methodology

BIBLIOGRAPHY

APPENDIX A – MARKET DATA AND MAJOR BRAND KEY FACTS

Cytotoxic therapies market data

Antihormonal therapies market data

Molecular targeted therapies market data

APPENDIX B – MARKET FORECAST DATA

US forecasts

Japan forecasts

France forecasts

Germany forecasts

Italy forecasts

Spain forecasts

UK forecasts

5EU forecasts

Seven major market forecasts APPENDIX C

Report methodology

About Datamonitor

About Datamonitor Healthcare

Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the US, Japan, Germany and France, 2006

Table 2: Top 20 cancer therapy brands in Italy, Spain, the UK, collective 5EU and collective seven major markets, 2006

Table 3: Newly marketed drugs included in the Top 20 cancer therapy brands, 2006-2017

Table 4: Seven major market sales of Top 20 cancer therapy brands by drug class, 2006

Table 5: Molecular targeted therapies included in the Top 20 cancer therapy brands, 2006

Table 6: Cytotoxic therapies included in the Top 20 cancer therapy brands, 2006

Table 7: Antihormonal therapies included in the Top 20 cancer therapy brands, 2006

Table 8: Top 20 cancer therapy brands in the US, Japan, Germany and France, 2016

Table 9: Top 20 cancer therapy brands in Italy, Spain, the UK, collective 5EU and collective seven major markets, 2006

Table 10: Forecasted cancer therapy brands by number of different events, 2007-2016

Table 11: Definition of the cancer market, 2007

Table 12: Abraxane: key facts

Table 13: Alimta: key facts

Table 14: Camptosar: key facts

Table 15: Doxil: key facts

Table 16: Ellence: key facts

Table 17: Eloxatin: key facts

Table 18: Furtulon: key facts

Table 19: Gemzar: key facts

Table 20: Navelbine: key facts

Table 21: Paraplatin: key facts

Table 22: Taxol: key facts

Table 23: Taxotere: key facts

Table 24: Market share of Taxotere, 2005

Table 25: Temodar: key facts

Table 26: TS-1: key facts

Table 27: UFT: key facts

Table 28: Xeloda: key facts

Table 29: Arimidex: key facts

Table 30: Aromasin: key facts

Table 31: Casodex: key facts

Table 32: Femara: key facts

Table 33: Lupron: key facts

Table 34: Nolvadex: key facts

Table 35: Zoladex: key facts

Table 36: Avastin: key facts

Table 37: Erbitux: key facts

Table 38: Gleevec: key facts

Table 39: Herceptin: key facts

Table 40: Iressa: key facts

Table 41: Nexavar: key facts

Table 42: Rituxan: key facts

Table 43: Approved indications for Rituxan in the US and EU, 2006

Table 44: Sutent: key facts

Table 45: Tarceva: key facts

Table 46: Tykerb: key facts

Table 47: Vectibix: key facts

Table 48: Velcade: key facts

Table 49: Abraxane: key facts

Table 50: Alimta: key facts

Table 51: Camptosar: key facts

Table 52: Doxil: key facts

Table 53: Ellence: key facts

Table 54: Eloxatin: key facts

Table 55: Furtulon: key facts

Table 56: Gemzar: key facts

Table 57: Navelbine: key facts

Table 58: Paraplatin: key facts

Table 59: Taxol: key facts

Table 60: Taxotere: key facts

Table 61: Temodar: key facts

Table 62: TS-1: key facts

Table 63: UFT: key facts

Table 64: Xeloda: key facts

Table 65: Arimidex: key facts

Table 66: Aromasin: key facts

Table 67: Casodex: key facts

Table 68: Femara: key facts

Table 69: Lupron: key facts

Table 70: Nolvadex: key facts

Table 71: Zoladex: key facts

Table 72: Avastin: key facts

Table 73: Erbitux: key facts

Table 74: Gleevec: key facts

Table 75: Herceptin: key facts

Table 76: Iressa: key facts

Table 77: Nexavar: key facts

Table 78: Rituxan: key facts

Table 79: Sutent: key facts

Table 80: Tarceva: key facts

Table 81: Tykerb: key facts

Table 82: Vectibix: key facts

Table 83: Velcade: key facts

Table 84: US forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (1 of 2)

Table 85: US forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (2 of 2)

Table 86: Japan forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (1 of 2)

Table 87: Japan forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands($m), 2006-2016 (2 of 2)

Table 88: France forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (1 of 2)

Table 89: France forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (2 of 2)

Table 90: Germany forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (1 of 2)

Table 91: Germany forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (2 of 2)

Table 92: Italy forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (1 of 2)

Table 93: Italy forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (2 of 2)

Table 94: Spain forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (1 of 2)

Table 95: Spain forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (2 of 2)

Table 96: UK forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (1 of 2)

Table 97: UK forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (2 of 2)

Table 98: 5EU forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (1 of 2)

Table 99: 5EU forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016

Table 100: Seven major market forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (1 of 2)

Table 101: Seven major market forecasts for the Top 20 cancer therapy brands ($m), 2006-2016 (2 of 2)

List of Figures

Figure 1: US Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2006

Figure 2: US Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2016

Figure 3: Japan Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2006

Figure 4: Japan Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2016

Figure 5: France Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2006

Figure 6: France Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2016

Figure 7: Germany Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2006

Figure 8: Germany Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2016

Figure 9: Italy Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2006

Figure 10: Italy Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2016

Figure 11: Spain Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2006

Figure 12: Spain Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2016

Figure 13: UK Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2006

Figure 14: UK Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2016

Figure 15: 5EU Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2006

Figure 16: 5EU Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2016

Figure 17: Seven major markets Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2006

Figure 18: Seven major markets Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by class: 2016

Figure 19: Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by country: 2006

Figure 20: Top 20 cancer therapy brand sales by country: 2016

Figure 21: Forecasted cancer therapy brands by class

Figure 22: Forecasted cancer therapy brands by mode of action

Figure 23: Forecasted cancer therapy brands by indication

Figure 24: Forecasted cancer therapy brands by company

Figure 25: Forecasted cancer therapy brands by number of different events, 2007-2016

Figure 26: Forecasted cancer therapy brands by CAGR, 2006-2016

Figure 27: Molecular targeted therapy brands by CAGR, 2006-2016

Figure 28: Cytotoxic therapy brands by CAGR, 2006-2016

Figure 29: Antihormonal therapy brands by CAGR, 2006-2016

Figure 30: Seven market population aged 60 and over, 2000-2050

Figure 31: Forecast incidence of cancer across the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2001-2015

Figure 32: Global oncology sales ($m), 2002-2011

Figure 33: Summary of global opportunities and threats affecting the cancer market, 2007

Figure 34: Summary of regional opportunities and threats affecting the cancer market, 2007