Market Report Source

Overview

Introduction

This Company Analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Roche in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Reasons to Purchase

*Benchmark Roche’s performance against key rivals in the ethical pharmaceutical sector *Learn how Roche is forecast to achieve the strongest ethical sales growth rate among the Big pharma peer set over 2005-11 *Understand how Roche is located in the high growth therapy areas of oncology and AIID, while much of Big Pharma remains entrenched in CV and CNS

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key findings

Historical and forecast ethical sales performance

Therapeutic strategy

Molecule type, externalization and geographic strategies

Molecule type strategy

Externalization strategy

Geographic strategy

Launch and expiry outlook

SWOT analysis

Strengths

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY

Key findings

Background

Key corporate developments

Pharmaceuticals division

Diagnostics division

Divestments

M&A history

Genentech

Chugai

Large-scale M&A

Current corporate structure

‘Twin-pillared’ structure

Pharmaceutical division

Roche’s pharma diversification strategy

Current management team

CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE

Key findings

Introduction

Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2002–05

Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set

Product analysis, 2002–05

Growth drivers

Growth resistors

Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2002–05

Operating revenue/cost analysis

CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE

Key findings

Introduction

Revenue and growth rate, 2005–11

Product analysis, 2005–11

Therapy area analysis, 2005–11

Oncology

AIID – A new biologics market for Roche

Therapy area focus

Launches and expiries analysis, 2005–11

Launch portfolio

Core portfolio

Expiry portfolio

Launch/core/expiry configuration

Externalization analysis, 2005–11

Geographic analysis, 2005–11

Molecule type analysis, 2005–11

Position of mAb products in ‘Big Pharma’ technology lifecycle

CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS

Key findings

Overview

Oncology

Avastin

MabThera/Rituxan

Herceptin

Tarceva

Xeloda

Key oncology competitors

Infectious disease

Pegasys + Copegus

Tamiflu

AIID (Arthritis, Inflammation and Immune Disorders)

CellCept

MabThera/Rituxan RA – Rheumatoid arthritis

Actemra

AIID competitors

Other

CERA

Lucentis

NeoRecormon/Epogin

R&D pipeline

CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX

IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation

Abbreviations

Exchange rates

TABLE OF TABLES

Table 1: Roche Group Corporate Executive Committee

Table 2: Peer set overview

Table 3: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002–05

Table 4: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002–05

Table 5: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005–11

Table 6: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2005–11

Table 7: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005–11

Table 8: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005–11

Table 9: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005–11

Table 10: Externally developed portfolio, 2005–11 ($m)

Table 11: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2005–11

Table 12: Avastin: proven benefit in three tumor types

Table 13: Key products overview

Table 14: Avastin: Overview

Table 15: Avastin sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 16: Avastin: Newsflow

Table 17: Avastin vs. Erbitux in the US

Table 18: Rituxan: Overview

Table 19: Rituxan sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 20: MabThera/Rituxan (oncology): Newsflow

Table 21: Herceptin: Overview

Table 22: Herceptin sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 23: Herceptin: Newsflow

Table 24: Tarceva: Overview

Table 25: Tarceva sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 26: Tarceva: Newsflow

Table 27: Xeloda: Overview

Table 28: Xeloda sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 29: Xeloda: Newsflow

Table 30: Pegasys: Overview

Table 31: Copegus: Overview

Table 32: Pegasys sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 33: Copegus sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 34: Pegasys: Newsflow

Table 35: Tamiflu: Overview

Table 36: Tamiflu sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 37: CellCept: Overview

Table 38: CellCept sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 39: CellCept: Newsflow

Table 40: Rituxan: Overview

Table 41: Rituxan sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 42: MabThera/Rituxan (rheumatoid arthritis): Newsflow

Table 43: Actemra: Overview

Table 44: Actemra sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 45: Actemra: Newsflow

Table 46: CERA: Overview

Table 47: CERA sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 48: CERA: Newsflow

Table 49: Lucentis: Overview

Table 50: Lucentis sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 51: Lucentis: Newsflow

Table 52: NeoRecormon/Epogin: Overview

Table 53: NeoRecormon/Epogin sales forecast ($m), 2005–11

Table 54: NeoRecormon/Epogin: Newsflow

Table 55: Roche’s R&D pipeline (Phase I–Registration)

Table 56: Roche’s indication broadening pipeline (Phase I–Registration)

Table 57: Exchange rates, 2005

TABLE OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance, Roche and Big Pharma peer set (% CAGR)

Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Big Pharma peer set (%)

Figure 3: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency vs. peer set, 2005–11 (%)

Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry vs. peer set, absolute sales growth, 2005–11 (sales as % of 2005 sales)

Figure 5: SWOT analysis of Roche

Figure 6: Breakdown of Roche Group sales growth out to 2011 by Genentech, Roche Pharma, Chugai and external products

Figure 7: M&A/divestment history

Figure 8: Current corporate structure

Figure 9: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2002–05

Figure 10: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2002–05

Figure 11: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2002–05

Figure 12: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002–05

Figure 13: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002–05

Figure 14: Operating cost ratio vs. peer set, 2002–05

Figure 15: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2005–11

Figure 16: Top five products by sales ($m), 2005 & 2011

Figure 17: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2005–11

Figure 18: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 19: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2005–11

Figure 20: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2005–11

Figure 21: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2005–11

Figure 22: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2005 & 2011

Figure 23: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 24: Core products sales growth ($m), 2005–11

Figure 25: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 26: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 27: Launch, core and expiry vs. peer set, absolute sales growth, 2005–11 (sales as % of 2005 sales)

Figure 28: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 29: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 30: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products by company, % of 2005 sales, 2005–11

Figure 31: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 & 2011

Figure 32: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2005–11

Figure 33: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 34: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 & 2011

Figure 35: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2005–11

Figure 36: Position of molecule types in Big Pharma technology lifecycle, 2001–10

Figure 37: Big Pharma peer set CAGR (%) by product type, 2002–11

Figure 38: The role of Roche/Genentech in the evolution of the mAb market

Figure 39: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 40: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 & 2011

Figure 41: Direct competition for MabThera/Rituxan in NHL

Figure 42: Direct competition in the targeted breast cancer market

Figure 43: Direct competition in the colorectal cancer market

Figure 44: Direct competition in targeted NSCLC market

Figure 45: Direct competition in the AIID biologics market

Figure 46: Direct competition in the pegylated interferon market

Figure 47: Direct competition in transplant rejection market

Figure 48: Direct competition in epoetin market

Figure 49: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2005

Figure 50: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2005–11