Market Report Source

Overview

Introduction

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Shire in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Reasons to Purchase

*Analysis of Shire’s corporate strategy, marketed portfolio, pipeline potential and financial position in 2005 and to 2011 *Evaluate the company’s prospects of maintaining growth following the approaching genericization of its current key product, Adderall XR *See how Shire’s focus on specialist therapy areas and the company’s acquisition of Transkaryotic Therapies will affect its long-term growth prospects

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key findings

Historical and forecast ethical sales performance

Therapeutic strategy

Launch and expiry outlook

Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies

Externalization strategy

Geographic strategy

Molecule type strategy

SWOT analysis

Strengths

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY

Key findings

Background

Key corporate developments

M&A history

Acquisition of Imperial Pharmaceutical Services

Acquisition of Phamavene

Acquisition of Richwood

Merger with Roberts

Acquisition of Fuisz Technologies’ EU susidiaries

Acquisition of Biochem Pharma

Divestment of OTC products

Divestment of Shire Biologics

Transkaryotic Therapies

Current corporate structure

Shire Human Genetic Therapies (Shire HGT),

Current management team

CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE

Key findings

Introduction

Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2002-05

Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set

Product analysis, 2002-05

Growth drivers

Adderall XR

Fosrenol

Pentasa

Growth resistors

Adderall

Proamatine

Agrylin/Xagrid

Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2002-05

Operating revenue/cost analysis

Operating cost ratio analysis

CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE

Key findings

Introduction

Revenue and growth rate, 2005-11

Product analysis, 2005-11

ADHD-life after Adderall XR

Several smaller products spread the dependence away from ADHD

Growth resistors

Adderall XR is the greatest drag on growth

Aside from Adderall XR, there are few signifiant growth resistors

Growth drivers

The success of NRP104 is critical for Shire’s future growth

Daytrana is expected to drive sales growth behind NRP104

Elaprase

Therapy area analysis, 2005-11

CNS

NRP104 is key to Shire’s replacement of Adderall XR sales

Daytrana provides robust support in the CNS franchise

‘Other’ therapy areas

The acquisition of TKT allows expansion into new specialist markets

Elaprase faces no competitors in a limited but valuable market

Therapy area focus

Launches and expiries analysis, 2005-11

Launch portfolio

Shire’s new ADHD treatments target unmet needs

Mesavance is expected to continue Shire’s history of successful reformulation

Entry into new therapy areas diversifies Shire’s product offering

Product launches are expected to maintain top-line growth over the forecast period

Core portfolio

Expiry portfolio

Adderall XR dominates Shire’s ‘expiry’ portfolio

Loss of royalties has a greater impact than product sales

Despite generic erosion in the US, Agrylin has market exclusivity to 2015 in Europe

Launch/core/expiry configuration

Externalization analysis, 2005-11

Geographic analysis, 2005-11

Molecule type analysis, 2005-11

CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS

Key findings

Overview

CNS

Adderall XR

Overview

Sales forecast

Newsflow

Competitive landscape

Future market assessment

Daytrana

Overview

Sales forecast

Newsflow

Competitive landscape

Future market assessment

NRP104

Overview

Sales forecast

Newsflow

Competitive landscape

Future market assessment

Connexyn

Overview

Sales forecast

Newsflow

Competitive landscape

Future market assessment

Hematology

Dynepo

Overview

Sales forecast

Newsflow

Competitive landscape

Future potential

AIID

Mesavance

Overview

Sales forecast

Newsflow

Competitive landscape

Future market assessment

Infectious disease

3TC franchise

Overview

Sales forecast

Newsflow

Competitive landscape

Future market assessment

Other

Elaprase

Overview

Sales forecast

Newsflow

Competitive landscape

Future market assessment

R&D pipeline

CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX

IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation

References

Abbreviations

Exchange rates

List of Tables

Table 1: Shire’s senior management

Table 2: Peer set overview

Table 3: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05

Table 4: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05

Table 5: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

Table 6: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

Table 7: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

Table 8: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

Table 9: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

Table 10: Externally sourced portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11

Table 11: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2005-11

Table 12: Key products overview

Table 13: Adderall XR: overview

Table 14: Adderall XR: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

Table 15: Adderall XR: newsflow

Table 16: US sales of leading ADHD treatments (as a % of $ market share), 2002-05

Table 17: Daytrana: overview

Table 18: Daytrana: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

Table 19: Daytrana: newsflow

Table 20: NRP104: overview

Table 21: NRP104: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

Table 22: NRP104: newsflow

Table 23: Connexyn: overview

Table 24: Connexyn: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

Table 25: Connexyn: newsflow

Table 26: Dynepo: overview

Table 27: Dynepo: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

Table 28: Dynepo: newsflow

Table 29: Mesavance: overview

Table 30: Mesavance: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

Table 31: Mesavance: newsflow

Table 32: Key salicylate class treatments used to treat ulcerative colitis

Table 33: US and M5EU prescription of Asacol and Pentasa by indication, 2003-05

Table 34: 3TC franchise: overview

Table 35: 3TC franchise: revenue forecast ($m), 2005-11

Table 36: 3TC franchise: newsflow

Table 37: Elaprase: overview

Table 38: Elaprase: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11

Table 39: Elaprase: newsflow

Table 40: Shire’s R&D pipeline (Phase II to registration)

Table 41: Exchange rates, 2005

List of Figures

Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Shire and the Mid Pharma peer set

Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Mid Pharma peer set (%), 2005

Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), Shire

Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set

Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2005

Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2011

Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Shire

Figure 8: M&A/divestment history

Figure 9: Current corporate structure

Figure 10: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2002-05

Figure 11: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2002-05

Figure 12: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2002-05

Figure 13: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05

Figure 14: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05

Figure 15: Operating cost ratio vs. peer set, 2002-05

Figure 16: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2005-11

Figure 17: Top five products by sales ($m), 2005

Figure 18: Top five products by sales ($m), 2011

Figure 19: Growth drivers and resistors by product ($m), 2005-11

Figure 20: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2005-11

Figure 21: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2005-11

Figure 22: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2005-11

Figure 23: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2005-11

Figure 24: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2005

Figure 25: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2011

Figure 26: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11

Figure 27: Core products sales growth ($m), 2005-11

Figure 28: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11

Figure 29: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2005-11

Figure 30: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), Shire

Figure 31: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set

Figure 32: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2005-11

Figure 33: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2005-11

Figure 34: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005

Figure 35: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011

Figure 36: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11

Figure 37: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2005-11

Figure 38: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005

Figure 39: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011

Figure 40: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11

Figure 41: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005

Figure 42: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011

Figure 43: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2005

Figure 44: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2005-11