Market Report Source

Overview

Introduction
Based on an analysis of 46 companies and 1,000+ products, Datamonitor forecasts that pharmaceutical industry ethical sales will increase at a modest 4.9% CAGR 200511. However, behind this industry average figure there are strategic segments of the market that offer double-digit growth rates through barriers against generic competition and the opportunity for aggressive indication broadening.

Scope
Financial and Strategic Analysis of the Sales Outlook to 2011 for Big Pharma, Mid Pharma, Japan Pharma and Biotech
Quantitative analysis of the revenue balance of launches and expiries for each peer set member to 2011
Assessment of current and forecast 2011 therapeutic focus and product type focus for each peer set member
2002-2006 operating cost and EBIT margin analysis for each peer set member

Highlights
Faced with failing growth, Big Pharma is expected to pursue strategic options including operational cost efficiencies, M&A with other Big Pharma companies, biotech, Mid Pharma CNS players and/or generics manufacturers and acquisitional moves outside of ‘pharma space’ to increase presence in medical devices, diagnostics and consumer healthcare.

Biotech will be the fastest growing peer set with a 10.1% sales CAGR 2005-11. Biotech is almost totally insulated from generic threat because (1) biotech portfolios are often too young to contain expired products and (2) even if products have expired, the predominantly biologic nature of biotech portfolios is a major barrier to generic entry.

The fastest growing Japanese companies (such as Daiichi-Sankyo and Astellas) will receive the majority of their growth from expanding sales of already marketed products whereas the slowest growing companies (such as Takeda and Eisai) are burdened with heavy sales declines from patent expiries particularly in the gastrointestinal therapy area.

Reasons to Purchase
Understand the strategic motives behind the recent wave of Big Pharma acquisitions of monoclonal antibody companies
Identify the rare examples of promising high growth CNS products located in the Mid Pharma peer set
Learn how biotech faces slowing growth momentum due to second generation biologics cannibalizing sales of first generation predecessor products.

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Key findings

Introduction to the PharmaVitae Company Universe

Summary of analysis

PharmaVitae universe overview

Big Pharma overview

Mid Pharma overview

Biotech overview

Japan Pharma overview

The PharmaVitae universe will grow at a very modest 2005–11 CAGR of 4.9%

Indication broadening in oncology and AIID provides a major opportunity for driving growth and biologics are currently insulated against generic competition

Japan, Big and Mid Pharma are all entrenched in slow-growing disease markets

Biotech is the most biologics-focused peer set although Big Pharma player Roche has accessed this valuable product set via the acquisition of Genentech

Indication broadening boosts sales growth from core marketed products whereas generic competition drives down sales of expired products

The financial benefit of Big Pharma scale – increased operating profit margins

Strategic options for Big Pharma and consequences for the other peer sets

(1) Achieve operating cost efficiencies

(2) M&A with another Big Pharma – more mega-mergers?

(3) M&A with biotech – access oncology/AIID biologics

(4) M&A with Mid Pharma – access promising CNS products

(5) M&A with generics companies

(6) M&A outside of pharma space

Consequences for other peer sets

The rest of this report

CHAPTER 2 BIG PHARMA

Key findings

Big Pharma members

Big Pharma members

Big Pharma overview

Big Pharma sales outlook

Company sales performance, 2005–11

Big Pharma sales performance, 2005–11

Company growth rates, 2005–11

Company change in annual sales, 2005–11

Big Pharma launch/expiry analysis

Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Big Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Big Pharma therapeutic area analysis

Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005

Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005

Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011

Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2005

Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2011

Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products, 2005

Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products, 2011

Big Pharma molecule type analysis

Big Pharma molecule type launch/core/expiry analysis

Company by biologics dependency, 2005

Company by biologics dependency, 2011

Big Pharma growth rate by molecule type

Big Pharma financial performance analysis

Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues

Company total revenues, 2002–06e

Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e

Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e

Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e

Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e

CHAPTER 3 MID PHARMA

Key findings

Mid Pharma overview

Mid Pharma members

Mid Pharma overview

Mid Pharma sales outlook

Company sales performance, 2005–11

Mid Pharma sales performance, 2005–11

Company growth rates, 2005–11

Company change in annual sales, 2005–11

Mid Pharma launch/expiry analysis

Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Mid Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Mid Pharma therapeutic area analysis

Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005

Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011

Mid Pharma molecule type analysis

Company by biologics dependency, 2005

Company by biologics dependency, 2011

Mid Pharma financial performance analysis

Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues

Company total revenues, 2002–06e

Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e

Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e

Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e

Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e

CHAPTER 4 BIOTECH

Key findings

Biotech overview

Biotech members

Biotech overview

Biotech sales outlook

Company sales performance, 2005–11

Biotech sales performance, 2005–11

Company growth rates, 2005–11

Company change in annual sales, 2005–11

Biotech launch/expiry analysis

Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Biotech contribution from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Biotech therapeutic area analysis

Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005

Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011

Biotech molecule type analysis

Company by biologics dependency, 2005

Company by biologics dependency, 2011

Biotech financial performance analysis

Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues

Company total revenues, 2002–06e

Company operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e

EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e

CHAPTER 5 JAPAN PHARMA

Key findings

Japan Pharma overview

Japan Pharma members

Japan Pharma overview

Japan Pharma sales outlook

Company sales performance, 2005–11

Japan Pharma sales performance, 2005–11

Company growth rates, 2005–11

Company change in annual sales, 2005–11

Japan Pharma launch/expiry analysis

Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Japan Pharma contribution from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Japan Pharma therapeutic area analysis

Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005

Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011

Japan Pharma molecule type analysis

Company by biologics dependency, 2005

Company by biologics dependency, 2011

Japan Pharma financial performance analysis

Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues

Company total revenues, 2002–06e

Company operating expense ratio analysis, 2002–06e

EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e

CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX

References

Exchange rates

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Big Pharma members

Table 2: Mid Pharma members

Table 3: Biotech members

Table 4: Japan Pharma members

Table 5: Therapy area abbreviations (used throughout report)

Table 6: Summary of analysis

Table 7: Big Pharma members

Table 8: Big Pharma ethical sales forecasts ($m), 2005–11

Table 9: Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Table 10: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Table 11: Big Pharma therapy area sales, 2005–11

Table 12: Big Pharma therapy area launch/core/expiry analysis, 2005–11

Table 13: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2005

Table 14: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas, 2011

Table 15: Big Pharma top five products, 2005

Table 16: Big Pharma top five products, 2011

Table 17: Company contributions from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Table 18: Big Pharma therapy area launch/core/expiry analysis, 2005–11

Table 19: Mid Pharma members

Table 20: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11

Table 21: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Table 22: Biotech members

Table 23: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11

Table 24: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Table 25: Japan Pharma members

Table 26: Company contributions from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11

Table 27: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Table 28: Exchange rates, 2005

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: PharmaVitae universe overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)

Figure 2: Big Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)

Figure 3: Mid Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)

Figure 4: Biotech overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)

Figure 5: Japan Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)

Figure 6: PharmaVitae universe sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 7: Therapy area x product attractiveness landscape

Figure 8: Therapy area x product landscape: PFE, ROG and DNA

Figure 9: Peer set therapeutic area focus, 2005

Figure 10: Peer set therapy area growth rates (% CAGR), 2005–11

Figure 11: Peer set launch/core/expiry analysis, total growth rate over the six years between 2005–11 (%)

Figure 12: Peer set EBIT/total revenues, 2006e

Figure 13: Strategic options for Big Pharma

Figure 14: Big Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)

Figure 15: Company sales performance ($m), 2005–11

Figure 16: Big Pharma sales performance, 2005–11

Figure 17: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005–11

Figure 18: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 19: GlaxoSmithKline’s launch portfolio, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 20: GlaxoSmithKline’s expiry portfolio, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 21: GlaxoSmithKline’s core portfolio, sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 22: GlaxoSmithKline launch/core/expiry analysis, absolute growth ($m), 2005–11

Figure 23: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Figure 24: Big Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11

Figure 25: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005

Figure 26: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005

Figure 27: Company by therapy area sales, 2011

Figure 28: Big Pharma therapy area focus vs. growth rate

Figure 29: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas (% of total ethical sales), 2005

Figure 30: Big Pharma dependency on top three therapy areas (% of total ethical sales), 2011

Figure 31: Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products(% of total ethical sales), 2005

Figure 32: Big Pharma dependency on top five, 10 and 20 products (% of total ethical sales), 2011

Figure 33: Big Pharma launch/core/expiry by product type (% 2005 sales), 2005–11

Figure 34: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005

Figure 35: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011

Figure 36: Big Pharma growth rate by molecule type (% CAGR), 2005–11

Figure 37: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m), 2005

Figure 38: Company total revenues ($m), 2002–06e

Figure 39: Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e

Figure 40: Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e

Figure 41: Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e

Figure 42: Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e

Figure 43: Big Pharma EBIT vs. total revenues ($m), 2006e

Figure 44: Mid Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)

Figure 45: Company sales performance ($m), 2005–11

Figure 46: Mid Pharma sales performance ($m), 2005–11

Figure 47: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005–11

Figure 48: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 49: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Figure 50: Mid Pharma contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11

Figure 51: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005

Figure 52: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011

Figure 53: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005

Figure 54: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011

Figure 55: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m)

Figure 56: Company total revenues ($m), 2002–06e

Figure 57: Company R&D operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e

Figure 58: Company COGS operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e

Figure 59: Company S,G&A operating expense ratio analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e

Figure 60: Company EBIT margin analysis, 2002–06e

Figure 61: Mid Pharma EBIT vs. total revenues ($m), 2006e

Figure 62: Biotech overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)

Figure 63: Company sales performance ($m), 2005–11

Figure 64: Biotech sales performance ($m), 2005–11

Figure 65: Company growth rates (CAGR %), 2005–11

Figure 66: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005–11

Figure 67: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2005–11

Figure 68: Biotech contribution from launches and expiries ($m), 2005–11

Figure 69: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2005

Figure 70: Company by therapeutic area sales, 2011

Figure 71: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2005

Figure 72: Company by biologics dependency (% total ethical sales), 2011

Figure 73: Company total revenues vs. ethical revenues ($m)

Figure 74: Company total revenues ($m), 2002–06e

Figure 75: Company operating cost analysis (% total revenues), 2002–06e

Figure 76: Company EBIT/total revenues, 2002–06e

Figure 77: Japan Pharma overview, share of 2005 and 2011 sales (%)

Figure 78: Company sales performance ($m), 2005–11

Figure 79: Japan Pharma sales performance ($m), 2005–11

Figure 80: Company growth rates (% CAGR), 2005–11

Figure 81: Company change in annual sales ($m), 2005–11